Expanded company research · 23 October 2026 models
Original evidence. Independent CIN judgments.
Seven additional company reviews and an updated Cronos acquisition case, with two proposed CIN ratings and targets, four valuation scenario builds, and explicit holds where a current equity bridge remains incomplete.
7new company reviews
2unissued CIN draft targets
4valuation scenario builds
CIN working papers. Two unissued CIN draft ratings and targets are presented as research judgments; they are not final recommendations or external analyst consensus.
Six other companies are NotRated, including delisted/private Celadon. No new CIN opinion has been issued. This research does not certify 15 currently listed securities or complete coverage of the 312-company directory.
Original source, financial-period, quote and model dates remain distinct. Unresolved evidence limits and existing holds remain in force.
TLRY · NASDAQ · USD
Sell · USD 1.80
High risk · unissued draft
Proposed 12-month target. Cash conversion, lease service, minorities and dilution outweigh revenue growth in the central case.
Stored quote USD 2.81,23 Oct 2026 20:28UTC. Rounded draft comparison:−35.9%. This is a CIN estimate, not broker consensus.
Seven companies extend research beyond the prior eight. The Cronos work updates an existing company. NotRated means the evidence is insufficient to underwrite a current target; it is not a Sell recommendation or a claim that value is zero.
Original accounts overturn the stale assumption that CEL remains a quoted AIM security.
Research method and rating convention: Buy normally requires at least 20% central appreciation; Sell applies below −15%; Hold falls between, only after an underwrite is possible. Risk and missing evidence can override numerical thresholds. Selected multiples are CIN judgments, not observed peer medians. No Buy is forced into this set.
United States · global operations · TLRY
Tilray Brands
NASDAQ TLRY · USD
Draft Sell · High riskUSD 1.80CIN draft working paper · not issued
Revenue growth has not yet become self-funded shareholder cash flow.
Q1 revenue includes acquired BrewDog operations. Cannabis net revenue declined to USD 56.109m from 64.511m; consolidated growth is not proof of organic cannabis growth.
The CIN base assumes USD 72m adjusted EBITDA, within the company’s USD 68–75m FY2027 guidance. The selected 7x multiple is CIN judgment, not a peer median.
Operating rent remains in EBITDA. Finance leases, positive minority economic claims, cash interest, capital spending and future share dilution reduce the common equity value.
Capital and valuation treatment
Starting unrestricted cash plus securities is USD 218.007m. Gross bank, term and latest convertible principal plus finance leases totals USD 319.325m. Restricted cash is excluded.
Scheduled principal is paid from cash and removed from debt together. September debt-for-equity shares are already inside the October cover count and are not added twice.
The base models 170m future diluted shares. The existing 11.354m RSUs and 0.302m options have economic value even when loss-making GAAP diluted EPS excludes them.
The USD 75m minority claim is an independent CIN normalized judgment. Negative minority book equity is never treated as a cash asset. The gross cash-interest forecast includes finance-lease interest; it is a modeled reserve, not a verified future expense.
Proposed-target supporting scenarios
All forward earnings, cash, financing, multiples and future units are CIN assumptions. The scenario table below shows the principal calculation; original source links and review limits are retained on this page.
Driver / output
Bear
Base
Bull
Revenue forecastUSD m
1,000.0
1,100.0
1,200.0
Adjusted EBITDA forecastUSD m
50.0
72.0
90.0
Selected EV / EBITDAx
5.0
7.0
9.0
Cash interestUSD m
35.0
31.0
29.0
Minority economic claimUSD m
40.0
75.0
112.0
Future diluted unitsm shares
190.0
170.0
162.0
Cash before principal / minorityUSD m
-63.0
-15.0
13.0
Ending cashUSD m
70.7
111.7
146.7
Ending debt + finance leasesUSD m
240.0
240.0
240.0
Common equity valueUSD m
40.7
300.7
604.7
Modeled value per shareUSD / share
0.21
1.77
3.73
Principal risks and limits
Weak cash conversion, covenant restrictions and a revolver unavailable during the testing holiday could increase financing pressure.
BrewDog integration, preliminary purchase accounting and disposal effects may change margins and the balance sheet.
Minority attribution, true maintenance spending and fresh current capital/cash require reconciliation before issue.
Next tests / thesis breakers
Evidence of positive after-interest, after-capex cash generation without repeated equity funding would challenge the Sell thesis.
Recheck the next original results, covenant testing and capital actions. Withdraw the draft if the financing or minority bridge materially changes.
Canada · updated existing case · CRON
Cronos Group
NASDAQ CRON · USD; TSX quote kept separate
Draft Hold · High riskUSD 3.00CIN draft working paper · not issued
Treasury strength supports the case; the Dutch acquisition adds earnings and unresolved regulatory risk.
The base values the legacy business at USD 55m after-rent EBITDA and 8x, plus the acquired operation at EUR 20m and 6x. These are CIN assumptions for review.
CanAdelaar’s disclosed EUR 20.1m annualized H1 EBITDA is unaudited management data, twice a half-year with legal-cost adjustments. It is neither actual full-year earnings nor forward guidance.
The deal closed after contractual conditions were waived, with the Bibob decision still outstanding. The model assumes no nationwide Dutch expansion and gives no credit for indemnity recoveries.
Capital and valuation treatment
June current cash and investments total USD 797.019m. Noncurrent deposits, loans and other investments are excluded. Cash interest is excluded from operating value, preventing double count with treasury assets.
The full EUR 57.5m base reserve covers seller consideration plus the EUR 12.5m proposed penalty amount withheld from seller cash; that amount is not charged again. Additional closing/regulatory reserves and both cash earnout years remain separate.
Contractual Normalized EBITDA has not been proven identical to disclosed Adjusted EBITDA. Future earnout earnings are explicit estimates. Earmarking both years may reserve cash beyond the 12-month target date.
June DSU units are remeasured at the stored USD 3.34, producing a USD 2.533m cash claim; they are not also shares. Future diluted units are 390m in the base, above the dated known economic footprint of 374.135m. No future buyback share-count benefit is credited.
The base deducts a USD 75m minority economic claim. Bear/base/bull claims 100/75/65m are attribution stresses, not forecasts that minority earnings fall as group earnings rise.
Proposed-target supporting scenarios
All forward earnings, cash, financing, multiples and future units are CIN assumptions. The scenario table below shows the principal calculation; original source links and review limits are retained on this page.
Driver / output
Bear
Base
Bull
Legacy revenue forecastUSD m
195.0
240.0
285.0
Legacy after-rent EBITDAUSD m
25.0
55.0
75.0
Legacy selected EV / EBITDAx
5.0
8.0
9.0
CanAdelaar EBITDA forecastEUR m
0.0
20.0
27.0
CanAdelaar selected EV / EBITDAx
0.0
6.0
8.0
Minority economic claimUSD m
100.0
75.0
65.0
Future diluted unitsm shares
400.0
390.0
385.0
Liquid assets after earmarked claimsUSD m
609.3
666.5
711.0
Legacy operating valueUSD m
125.0
440.0
675.0
Acquired operating valueUSD m
0.0
134.4
241.8
Common equity valueUSD m
633.0
1,164.5
1,561.5
Modeled value per shareUSD / share
1.58
2.99
4.06
Principal risks and limits
An adverse Bibob or environmental decision could invalidate the acquired earnings case. Indemnities are capped, conditional and counterparty-dependent.
The actual closing statement, acquired net debt/leases, post-June treasury and current share ledger are not yet reconciled. Model reserves do not verify them.
Competition, Canadian pricing/excise and Israeli import proceedings can weaken cash generation.
Next tests / thesis breakers
Next announced Q3 results:5 Nov 2026. Re-underwrite the treasury, capital allocation and legacy cash conversion.
Review acquired financial statements/pro formas and final regulatory outcomes. A material adverse ruling withdraws the acquired valuation case.
Canada · OGI.TO
Organigram Global
TSX OGI · CAD; current legal name confirmed
NotRatedWithheldCIN draft working paper · not issued
The fixed Sanity earnout changes both the cash funding need and the diluted share denominator.
Global integration and a simplified brand portfolio may improve operating leverage. Management’s savings targets are company claims, not achieved earnings.
CIN conditional scenarios assume CAD 30/45/60m EBITDA. They do not capitalize the large noncash preferred-liability gain as recurring profit.
Capital and valuation treatment
The old CAD 80.279m Sanity contingent liability is superseded for this forward model. Fixed cash enters the cash/financing bridge; fixed shares enter diluted units. Neither is subtracted twice.
EUR 76m shares are modeled at the CAD 3 floor for conservative maximum units. Future CAD/EUR 1.7/1.6/1.5 are CIN assumptions; the official 23 Oct daily average is 1.5667.
Preferred conversion/accretion, employee awards and bear-case funding increase modeled diluted units to roughly 255–271m. The old 141m common-only denominator is insufficient.
EBITDA is before cash leases. Cash lease payments are deducted in cash flow; forecast bank interest excludes lease interest already included there. Full lease PV is held constant under a CIN renewal assumption, not represented as a disclosed future balance.
Conditional scenarios — not targets
All forward earnings, cash, financing, multiples and future units are CIN assumptions. The scenario table below shows the principal calculation; original source links and review limits are retained on this page.
Driver / output
Bear
Base
Bull
Revenue forecastCAD m
360.0
410.0
470.0
EBITDA forecast, before cash leaseCAD m
30.0
45.0
60.0
Cash interestCAD m
4.0
3.8
2.5
Selected EV / EBITDAx
5.0
7.0
9.0
Cash after operating investmentCAD m
-15.0
10.0
30.0
Additional revolver drawCAD m
37.4
21.3
0.0
Additional equity cashCAD m
10.9
0.0
0.0
Ending cashCAD m
5.0
5.0
5.7
Ending gross bank principalCAD m
56.0
39.9
18.6
Modeled diluted unitsm shares
270.8
257.3
254.8
Conditional equity valueCAD m
92.9
278.9
530.9
Conditional value — not targetCAD / share
0.34
1.08
2.08
Principal risks and limits
EUR 20m cash earnout and working capital require a funded plan; revolver headroom is not guaranteed availability.
Preferred top-up rights, the BAT49% cap, settlement mechanics and the latest capital ledger are not fully reconciled.
Next tests / thesis breakers
A verified funded cash plan and exact current converted capital table are required before a rating or target.
Reconcile new full-period accounts and Sanity settlement adjustments; withdraw scenarios if financing or units change materially.
Canada · SNDL
SNDL
NASDAQ SNDL · USD; accounts/model CAD
NotRatedWithheldCIN draft working paper · not issued
Portfolio recoveries and cash after leases drive value more than headline liquidity.
The core operations and investment portfolio need separate values. Company EBITDA and book portfolio marks are not interchangeable with recoverable cash.
CIN assigns 35%/60%/85% recoveries to the conditional SunStream anchor and models further cash calls. These are judgments, not verified sale proceeds.
Capital and valuation treatment
The preliminary cash anchor is CAD 132.479m, not certified current cash. The conditional portfolio anchor combines June carrying value and later cash deployment; unknown Q3 fair-value movements remain unresolved.
The cash bridge deducts lease payments and capital spending. Full lease PV is subtracted from operating enterprise value; lease-renewal continuity is an assumption.
The fixed broad 254.183m denominator includes dated awards and a new compensation reserve. It is not a current treasury-stock diluted share count.
Conditional CAD values are translated to USD using the 23 Oct Bank of Canada daily average of CAD 1.3993 perUSD. Carrying that rate forward is an assumption. No target or upside is issued.
Conditional scenarios — not targets
All forward earnings, cash, financing, multiples and future units are CIN assumptions. The scenario table below shows the principal calculation; original source links and review limits are retained on this page.
Driver / output
Bear
Base
Bull
Operating revenue forecastCAD m
820.0
880.0
960.0
Operating EBITDA excluding portfolioCAD m
30.0
45.0
60.0
Selected operating EV / EBITDAx
4.0
5.0
6.0
Modeled diluted unitsm shares
254.2
254.2
254.2
Cash after operating investmentCAD m
-29.6
-12.6
2.4
Ending cashCAD m
72.8
104.8
134.8
Conditional equity valueCAD m
187.6
443.7
727.7
Conditional CAD valueCAD / share
0.74
1.75
2.86
Conditional USD equivalent — not targetUSD / share
0.53
1.25
2.05
Principal risks and limits
SunStream marks, ownership, capital calls and regulatory outcomes can materially change recoverable equity.
The preliminary Q3 free-cash-flow claim includes an insurance unwind and should not be annualized as recurring operating performance.
Next tests / thesis breakers
Full Q3 results are announced for 27 Oct 2026. Reconcile cash, investments, noncontrolling interests, leases and fully diluted units.
Document portfolio recoveries and executable bid terms before converting conditional values into a target.
Israel · INCR
InterCure
NASDAQ INCR · USD; statements ILS
NotRatedWithheldCIN draft working paper · not issued
Settlement headlines and a share consolidation do not provide a current equity bridge.
The medical-cannabis platform has genuine operating activity, but the latest verified annual earnings contain material compensation effects.
The post-split placement and conditional acquisition shares require a current capital rollforward; overlapping closings cannot simply be added to the split release.
Capital and valuation treatment
Financing-classified interest and lease principal are deducted in the cash diagnostic; positive reported CFO is not owner free cash flow.
ILS 230m compensation includes ILS 101m advances. Remaining gross 129m is not proven new cash or additive equity value; receivables already recognized must be reconciled.
The corrected placement describes 1.579m post-split units at USD 4.71, each with a five-year USD 7.07 warrant. CEO participation remains conditional in the reviewed evidence.
Principal risks and limits
No complete 2026 interim financial/cash packet was located in the bounded review; that is a coverage gap, not a claim that the issuer failed to file.
War/facility rehabilitation, bank maturity/covenants and current minority claims are unresolved.
The issuer non-GAAP reconciliation has a tax-sign conflict and material compensation sensitivity. Capitalizing the headline EBITDA would create false precision.
Next tests / thesis breakers
Obtain the current balance sheet, settlement receipt and rehabilitation funding bridge.
Tie post-split shares, warrants, CEO approval and conditional Botanico consideration. Verify a dated ILS/USD bridge before any target.
Australia · LGP.AX
Little Green Pharma / Cannatrek
ASX LGP · AUD
NotRatedWithheldCIN draft working paper · not issued
The merger creates a different business and a materially different capital structure.
The merger implemented on 1 Jun 2026 adds Australian distribution and clinics to the existing platform. Integration and cash conversion matter more than stale standalone growth.
June cash-flow reporting combines Cannatrek April–June with former LGP June only. Receipts are not a full combined quarter of revenue and cannot be annualized.
Capital and valuation treatment
CIN’s EBITDA8/14/20m at 4/6/8x produces conditional enterprise values of AUD 32/84/160m only. A consistent rent/lease convention must be calibrated before the equity bridge; TGA/other claims and future funding leakage remain unresolved.
CV conversion links disputed liabilities to share dilution but does not erase the company’s cash liability. Baseline/max conversion scenarios are not certified current capital.
Pre-merger adjusted EBITDA did not convert into substantial operating cash. A full comparable combined profit and cash period is required.
Principal risks and limits
TGA investigation, contingent-value outcomes, lease/minority claims and later capital changes remain material.
No exact dated AUD quote was verified. Missing price is unavailable, not zero.
Next tests / thesis breakers
Reconcile the current combined balance sheet, CV rights, TGA claims and full quarter of cash generation.
Keep the three enterprise values separate from per-share price targets until the equity bridge is supported.
Australia · VIT.AX
Vitura Health
ASX VIT · AUD
NotRatedWithheldCIN draft working paper · not issued
Financing support is the first valuation question after the disclosed covenant breach.
Distribution, Canview, Candor and clinical services are real operations; they are not automatically a high-margin software business.
The unaudited Q1 improvement is encouraging, but it overlaps a Bupa referral transition and a disclosed approximately AUD 6m FY2027 revenue headwind.
Capital and valuation treatment
The annual report says the June EBITDA/interest covenant was breached and a suitable waiver had not been received. All bank debt was classified current at 30 June; this is not a verified October balance or a claim that acceleration has occurred.
Cash must fund capitalized IT, leases, amortization and JV support. Negative minority book value is not a cash asset.
Capital counts can be reconciled, but a target still needs current bank support, forecast cash and minority/JV recovery values. Illustrative CIN EBITDA of AUD 3/5/7m at 4/6/8x gives enterprise values 12/30/56m before unresolved equity claims; these are stress assumptions, not share targets.
Principal risks and limits
Financing support, declining gross margin, lost referral activity and further JV funding can dominate common-equity outcomes.
No exact dated AUD quote was verified. No per-share target or current upside is presented.
Next tests / thesis breakers
Confirm current ANZ waiver/refinancing or explicit continuing support.
Track cash after software and leases through the post-Bupa transition. Announced AGM:27 Nov 2026.
United Kingdom · private / delisted · CEL.L
Celadon Pharmaceuticals Limited
Former AIM CEL; no current CEL.L equity target
NotRatedNot applicableCIN draft working paper · not issued
Original accounts overturn the stale assumption that CEL remains a quoted AIM security.
Current compatible quote unavailable — former listing.
The research can describe a private regulated-manufacturing/IP business, but the former listed-equity premise has ended.
Historical gross profit depended on biological fair-value uplift. The approximate pre-uplift gross result was a loss of GBP 1,000.
Capital and valuation treatment
Current private cash, secured drawings, new funding dilution and subsidiary incentive claims are unknown. Historical book equity is not a current valuation or liquidation recovery.
The original report contains inconsistent narrative/table subtotals. Visually checked statement amounts control; malformed subtotals are not silently repaired into facts.
Principal risks and limits
The report describes material funding uncertainty and possible restructuring or insolvency if funding fails; this does not establish that insolvency has occurred.
Private status limits liquidity and public disclosure. Old pence quotes must not be presented as current.
Next tests / thesis breakers
Binding financing, current private accounts and a complete capital table could reopen private valuation work.
A financing update does not reinstate the former AIM listing.
CIN · draft status and disclosures
Draft models and disclosure limits.
The two targets are rounded editorial proposals, supported by scenario models rather than a claim of precise market value. All new cases remain unissued. Original source, financial-period and model dates stay unchanged.
Operating forecasts, cash conversion, multiples, minority values and dilution remain CIN judgments. Author holdings, issuer relationships or payments, recent or intended trades, and conflicts have not been disclosed; they are not recorded as “none.”
Source register and evidence limits
Primary filings and issuer releases control over provider summaries. FinancialFilings supplied original-document mirrors; catalog metadata is not a substitute for the original listing or capital record. Company non-GAAP figures and unaudited claims are identified. The official FX observation is a daily average, not an executable price or a known future rate.