The pipeline
After eighteen months of frozen capital markets, the deal book is finally moving again. We track 12 named transactions and four roll-up vehicles actively sourcing in H2 2026.
Strategic / Asset Sales
1. Cresco — Columbia Care unwind (cont.) — Three remaining asset packages (PA retail, FL cultivation, MA retail) on the block. Combined revenue ~$140M.
2. TerrAscend — Maryland exit — Sub-scale market, distressed retail, expected sale to Curaleaf or Trulieve.
3. Jushi — Pennsylvania consolidation — Either acquirer or seller depending on liquidity runway.
Distressed / Insolvency
4. Schwazze (NM, CO) — Strategic review ongoing; balance sheet under pressure.
5. Glass House — California vertical — Not distressed, but ground operations rumored to attract roll-up interest.
6. AYRWF assets — Receivership process in two states; brand IP attracting bids.
Roll-up Vehicles
Two PE-backed cannabis-focused vehicles formed in Q2 2026. Both are structured to acquire single-state operators below 5x EBITDA. The first close is expected in Q4 — names withheld pending public disclosure.
Who benefits
- Curaleaf and Trulieve have the balance sheets to absorb assets at distressed prices. Both have publicly stated they prefer build over buy at current valuations — but every distressed sale is priced for them.
- The micro-caps — paradoxically — are the most asymmetric. Liquidation-value math on AYRWF, KANB, and PCLO has IRR profiles in the 60–80% range on a workout basis. High variance, but the math is there.
What kills the thesis
- A sustained credit-market reopening removes the distress
- DEA rescheduling pulls valuations up before deals print
- Cap-table dilution at acquirers makes EPS-accretive math harder
Bottom line
We expect 4–6 of these 12 to print before year-end. Watch the 8-K feed on our [Deals page](/deals.html) — every one of these will show up there first.