What the market is missing
The Canadian LP narrative for the last three years has been "left-for-dead" — and for good reason. Combined cash burn from 2019–2024 exceeded $4B. But the back half of 2025 and the first half of 2026 tell a quietly different story.
All three majors have now printed back-to-back positive adjusted EBITDA quarters. Tilray has done it on a real revenue base ($190M in the most recent quarter). Canopy's international medical book is now 38% of revenue, up from 12% two years ago. Aurora — the smallest of the three — has the cleanest pure-play medical story.
Why it's not in the price
The sell-side coverage on Canadian LPs collapsed in 2023. Most institutional desks dropped active coverage entirely. The result is that fundamentals are improving in a tape with very few eyes watching.
That won't last. The first wave of coverage reinitiations is already starting — three new initiations on TLRY in the last six weeks.
What we'd watch
1. Medical Germany — the single largest international growth vector for Tilray and Aurora
2. Beverage scale-out — Tilray's beer + cannabis-infused beverage strategy is the only real diversification play in the sector
3. Cash position vs. burn rate — Canopy still has the most question marks; Aurora and Tilray are past the worst
Bottom line
These are not zombies anymore. They are sub-scale but improving operators with real (if slow) growth and finally-improving unit economics. At current multiples, the asymmetry favors patient holders.